Political Science

Public Opinion Polling Exercise

 Exercise results

Pluralist theory, as introduced last week, relies on the basic assumption that “not everyone is interested in all issues all of the time.” This view, coupled with consistently low voter turnout, suggests that if government is to be responsive to “the people” some other mechanism must be found to ensure that the people are heard. Or, as Sidlow and Henschen put it:

 

If public opinion is to affect public policy, then public officials must be made aware of it. They must know which issues are of current concern to Americans and how strongly they feel about those issues. They must also know when public opinion changes. Of course, public officials most commonly learn about public opinion through election results, personal contacts, interest groups, and media reports The only relatively precise way to measure public opinion is through the use of public opinion polls (207).

 

Polling can be considered part of a two-way conversation between the American public and their government. Nothing in politics is done without some measure of opinion research. This research ranges from the language and imagery employed in speeches and campaign advertisements to potential policy initiatives. In other words, what Americans “think” about an issue is often critical to way that policy makers see the political environment within which they must act.

 

Yet polling, as Sidlow and Henschen also point out, does have its problems ranging from question bias and the manipulation of data to sloppy interpretation (209). Such misuse can, and often does, lead to a cynicism about the political use of statistics, a sentiment captured most usefully by Winston Churchill’s wry observation that “There are lies, damn lies, and statistics.” Perhaps you share Churchill’s view.

Just what these problems are, how you can spot them, and what you can do about them is our focus this week. This week we will work on a basic introduction to statistical analysis and polling research. The purpose of this is to help you develop some basic analytical tools that you can use to understand the implications of the daily dose of data to which you are subjected.

The Schedule:

• Monday: Introduction (Uses of polling, history of polling, How and Why are polls conducted)
• Tuesday: Data Collection (data collection day—submit hardcopy to Robin or Deann by 2:00 pm)
• Wednesday: Beginning Analysis (building a class profile, mean, median, sample size and demographics, political uses of the “average”)
• Thursday: Margin of Error (what does it mean, how is it calculated, and why should you care?)
• Friday: How good was our data and what could go wrong with it? (Sample problems, question bias, misinterpretation and misreporting of findings)

 

What you need?

• A calculator
• Some graph paper for charting
• MS Excel or another spreadsheet program would also be effective

 

Questions can be submitted to:

Robin Datta
rdatta@edcc.edu
425-640-1590

Deann Leoni
dleoni@edcc.edu
425-640-1184

Or, by posting your question to the BB discussion area set aside for this activity.

The Survey

On Tuesday (2/12/02) you will each be given the class period to interview five members of the EdCC student community (no faculty or staff may be included in your sample).

Approach each respondent and politely ask if they would mind answering a few short questions for a Political Science class activity. Do not pressure if they refuse. Say “Thank you” and move on.  

Record the following information from each respondent before you ask the questions:

 

• Gender (M/F)
• Age (a numeric value)
• Student Status (Fulltime (>= 15 credits) or Part-time (< 15 credits))

  Submit your datasheet to Robin or Deann by 2:00 pm on Tuesday 2/12/02. You may drop your hardcopy off at ALD 238 or submit via email to rdatta@edcc.edu.

 

Question 1:

Do you believe that a strong military is necessary to protect life, liberty, and property here at home, and American interests abroad?

1.  Strongly Agree

2.  Agree

3.  Disagree

4.  Strongly Disagree

5.  Don’t Know/Not Sure

Question 2:

Do you think that Physician Assisted Suicide should be legal in the state of Washington?

1.  Yes

2.  No

  Question 3:

Do you think that the Enron Collapse is a “significant” problem?

1.  Yes

2.  No

  Question 4:

How closely are you following the news about the Enron investigation?

1.  A lot

2.  Some

3.  A little

4.  Not at all

  Question 5:

Do you favor increased spending on defense even if it means mandatory military service, cutbacks in federal student loan programs, or cutbacks in money spent on protecting the environment?  

1.  Strongly Agree

2.  Agree

3.  Disagree

4.  Strongly Disagree

5.  Don’t Know/Not Sure

Question 6:

Did you watch, listen, or read President Bush’s State of the Union speech?

1.  Yes

2.  No

 

Question 7:

How closely are you following the news about the “War on Terrorism?”

1.  A lot

2.  Some

3.  A little

4.  Not at all